I have 3 SEC games left to post. The SEC is the conference I have followed for more than 40 years, and the conference I feel I know best. Over the course of the season, I will give more SEC plays than any other conference. I am taking all 3 of these particular plays fairly large.
7* South Carolina +16
I kept waiting for this line to go higher, but I think it has leveled off at 16 and might even go lower. This is a bad time for Tennessee to be in this situation. As far as the comparative strengths of the teams, Tennessee could certainly cover this. However, they faced Florida last week, coming out sky high after winning handily, and they face dangerous Auburn the following week. The Cocks are not the most interesting team for the Vols to focus on right now. South Carolina is very solid defensively, and they tuned up their offense last week with an easy romp over East Carolina. What's more, they have the comfort of a bye for the following week. Ultimately, Lou Holtz is a more effective coach than Phil Fulmer. The unveiling of true freshman Demetris Summers at RB is a powerful weapon for the Cocks to unleash. He'll eat up enough yardage to keep the game respectable and the generous spread covered. Tennesee -- what can I say, they are very good. They showed it against Florida and they'll show it again against Auburn. However, they'll be content to simply win the game against South Carolina.
7* Ole Miss -1.5
I love it that most people are obviously going with Texas Tech in this game, even making it a big play. Certain games I just love going with the minority, and this is one of them. This should be a fascinating offensive display, and I regret that it isn't on TV as it would be an entertaining game to watch. B J Symons is a great QB with incredible accuracy, still he is no Eli Manning. Reports that Manning is overrated are highly exaggerated. Eli is leading the SEC in passing yardage and passing efficiency, completing 65% of his passes. He also leads the SEC in total offense. In fact, the Ole Miss team leads the SEC in total offense. Believe it or not, Ole Miss has more overall talent than Texas Tech. They have a few more highly touted recruits than the Red Raiders. They also remember last year's 42-28 lost at Lubbock, and they will be ready to play. The Rebel rushing attack will become stronger and stronger as RFR Jamal Pittman, 6-1, 240, and fast, becomes more and more a focal point of the attack. He was devastating in high school, and he's just beginning to get healthy for the first time since he's been in Oxford. The Rebs also have more talented WRs than TT, with just as much experience. Chris Collins is highly underrated and should be a shoe-in for All-SEC honors. Bill Flowers and Mike Espy are not far behind. The Reb pass defense has the potential to be really good, and the first team secondary is completely ready to go for the first time. There is considerable skill back there -- CBs Von Hutchins and Travis Johnson, and FS Eric Oliver are all special talents and will make plays. I look for a high-scoring affair with the higher score being recorded by the Rebs. The 1.5 spread is a trap, as it creates the illusion that TT is actually the better team who will probably win the game. Be careful of this public play. This will be by far the best game the Rebels have played all year. Rebs will be challenged by a dangerous team who can almost match them point for point, but they will prevail in the end.
10* LSU -13
I have won 5 straight 10* games in college, and 6 straight including the pros. The line is this low because the public expects a letdown for the Tigers after beating Georgia, and that MSU will finally unleash all their fury after losting 3 straight SU and ATS. The thing is, these programs are on two completely different levels. LSU is much more together as a team, while the Bulldogs are reeling from losing their last two games to Tulane and Houston. What will a highly skilled and well prepared LSU squad do to them? LSU is second in the SEC in scoring at 40 points a game; MSU is last in scoring defense, allowing 38.3 points a game. LSU is 3rd in the SEC in passing offense, while MSU is last in pass defense and 11th in rushing defense. Add to that the complete mastery that LSU has had over State, winning the last two seasons by scores of 31-13 and 42-0. LSU will methodically go up and down the field, while their highly effective defense will slow down State's offensive threats. MSU might get their points, but there is no way they can cover a 13-point spread against the Tigers. I don't think things will get better in doggie-land until they get a new coach. Sherrill's time has come and gone. If they are smart they will pull in alumnus Bobby Wallace who has created a program out of nothing at Temple. Easily the game of the week.
I might come across one or two more games at the most that look really good to me, yet these already posted might be my only games of the week. If I do see something I can't pass up, I will post it here, along with reasons why.
Good luck to each of you, friends.
[This message was edited by NY Reb on September 25, 2003 at 10:50 PM.]
I've learned it's much more about timing than simply who can beat who. This game does not come at a good time for Toledo. They've been up for two straight weeks beating Marshall and Pittsburgh, so we know they are a fine team. I simply don't see them getting up enough for a 3rd straight week to take on Syracuse in the Carrier Dome (which is about an hour and a half away from me, BTW.) The Orangemen, meanwhile, looked like they were getting their own selves together last week against a capable Central Florida team. I'm thinking this line could go up, which is why I'm on it early. I don't think Syracuse will have any problem covering it.
